Quick ME CA post

I have a quick moment for a post. Spewing info works best. So here it is.

Afghanistan;
The US lost its pants, foothold, and men. China will win. That wasn't a fixed matter at the start of the longest war outside resource and long range alliance strategy planning at the time. China will engage in a way the hadn't but were probably going to begin to in 2001. They don't like the Taliban but have to secure there interests on their borders and will now no matter who the victor is. The US has laid the ground work for them in this regard in a number of ways we haven't the time for but most critically they can work with Pakistan and India better, in this matter, than the US can. They clearly don't want US forces on their border so good play.

Syria;
UGHHHHH!!!!!. This is a mess and will have to be reconciled by powers not Arabs. Saudi Qatari plans will not work. There is and will continue to be change however the anything is better than Iran motto is futile. Iran may lose influence but it is a matter of course not revolution (funny how Al Saud has only one revolution it wants on the humor front). There has also already been steps taken by all parties involved that would bring the end to the carnage. Iran and Russa have met the opposition openly, prisoner releases are alaway a good confidence builder, and we have the Egyptian MB in a position of power, Get in or miss out. Somebody is gonna get screwed and its not going to be as bad for those who engage.

Libya;
I don't know.

Mali;
Ha! Qatar lost it's training base for radicals to the French. Godda love it. They should have put all there assets into the Tuaregs it would have been far less unsavory to "Western powers".

Iraq;
Skip lets just do the ME

ME;
The ME is convulsing and it will be interesting to see if new borders come out of this. as of yet it hasn't happened however let's watch

Yemen; (I like Yemen as a test bubble that I know to little about)
Lets see if we come out with a further failed state, republic, effectively divided state, more representative (ie; more democratic), Islamist... state... etc. It will be interesting with Al Saud and the US on the same team and unable to determine much there as of now. I am skeptical of Saudi ability to take up arms there and the US won't... I'm speaking full ground engagement. Thus what we have is what we're getting just like in Syria. Very interesting. (see Iraq/ME)

Israel;
Well this place. First there is no Palestine left so talking about two states (One expected to not be able to preform the MOST basc function of a state that is to protect its population from foreign assault (IE have a military) is utterly ridiculous anyways and always has been.

In regaurds to Lebanon that 2006 war laid a foundation for a semi normal state to state relation ship born on deterrence that is spectacular. Neither side engages in unnecessary and ridiculous violation of the others territory. Do they sure but not habitually. Will they fight again sure but as a state with an army that is not in their control and a state that its army is its only control. A truly an amazing situation.

Syria;
I donno what Israel's game is here. They can't possibly enjoy this. Syria wasn't a mil threat before any more than Hezbollah post 2006. So risking an uncertain future like this would not be something advisable. This was fun in the Iran is an existential threat dream world but it's not so? This isn't in there control and they would be wise to get the US to engage in the latest diplomatic effort with their input then watch from the sidelines. (No preconditions LOL)

Till next time.

 

Turkeys jet is not NATO matter

 Not my bets writing. NATO treaty is... well just search it.
First Turkey is in violation of article 1 (The Parties undertake, as set forth in the Charter of the United Nations, to settle any international dispute in which they may be involved by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security and justice are not endangered, and to refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.) of the NATO treaty by not seeking to solve the Syria matter by peaceful means. It continues to provide a safe haven for the FSA mix up (including elements of international terror organizations) and is violating Syrian air space to provide these forces with intel. NATO is a defense organization and treaty not an offensive one. Turkey is already engaged in war with Syria by hosting an army it owns it and its actions. As such Turkey is engaged is a foreign act of aggression. (UN provides for states to act in self defense as Syria did however the treaty does not get very in depth about first strike responsibility and appears to be a moot point)

Second the plane was in Syrian or international airspace. This is not covered by the treaty which specifies the attack needs to be "on or over" their territory.

Third the North Atlantic does not need to have security restored and the Mediterranean security is not of concern in the treaty out side of the territorial waters of the states on this body of water.

This is not a NATO treaty matter of obligatory use of military force.

The big AQ getting another chance

Hello again.

Back for a bit. I'll work up a Syria post of course. Give me a day or a few I just got back to time free status. I am having a lil fun on twitter today though. I just stopped in to check if they took this dribble down. Nope!!!

Just for giggles here was my first thought when I started to pull together MENA and Central Asia news.

The Us is (kinda) helping.... Drum role :;::;;;:::;:::;;;:;;;
Al Qaeda!!! Syria's aspiring heirs. Back and bad ass. Throngs of these lil darlings are leaving areas where US forces work with propped up dictators to kill them (Yemen for sure judging by the domino of towns forfeited by them in the last few weeks) to a haven of spiraling violence where even states supporting them don't know what they want (except of course obedience which they have no idea how they will get). Another shot at a state for the big AQ (See; US & Saudi support AQ "the head" of the Afghan Mujahedin vs USSR) The problem is, the same, these guys are great fighters but they can't be controlled. Even if they could not by the likes of the US and Al Saud whom they hate. Ooo let coin (pardon the pun) them AQL.

Quick though...
1, This isn't gonna be quick so they will have masses of people in the not to distant future willing to trade liberty for security and they be there for them.
2, The cheap merc crowd can't hang with these boys and will be ejected instead of mopping them up when asked.
More later.

Thinking about Syria Watching Turkey

"If this can be solved it can only be solved through Turkish efforts."

Turkey is a Muslim neighbor of Syria with growing regional, economic, and diplomatic clout, it also has the most formidable military in the region. It has open lines of communication with Syrian government, Muslim Brotherhood, “The West”, and some of the fractishish movement members. So all eyes on Turkey

Veysel Ayhan, an associate professor from the Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal University and an expert on the Middle East and Syria, said a NATO intervention in Syria would turn the region into absolute hell. “Turkey is back to its position in the 1990s. It is pursuing a proactive foreign policy. We can confidently say that a wave of refugees much bigger than the one during the Gulf War is in store, as it is unlikely that the situation in Syria will be resolved in the near future. NATO handled the situation in Afghanistan and Libya badly. Western countries can't make any contributions to NATO in similar operations. If this can be solved, it can only be solved through Turkey's efforts. If, in the long run, NATO intervenes, we could be faced with a more dire picture.”

Turkey has everything on the table diplomacy, shaming, and military. Turkey is ranked 8^th of the worlds military with a standing force of over 600 thousand personnel. It has an approximately 19 billion (US) budget ranking 17^th in the world and is capable of purchasing top gear from any of the major arms producers states. Put that in comparison to Syria’s 300 thousand force with a 1 or 2 billion budget without similar access to top end

Iran Nuclear file

This post lays it out very well. The tit for tat between the US and Iran may lead to a nuclear armed Iran. Iran is, has been, and continues to be ambivalent on the matter. This being the case every negative action toward Iran (at least publicly, silent conflicts do not at present seem to illicit the same) causes Iran to enhance its proliferation activities in the direction that could lead to the weaponizing threshold. Excellent post from Patrick Disney from his presentation at CSIS.

What the US can learn from Germany and India about Terrorism

Over the past year both India and Germany have been the victims of terrorist attacks. The responce to the attacks could not be a clearer indication of the maturinty of these states to that of the US hyper nutty responces.
Germanys, see FP.
Indias see DFP
No time to source all the reps but good insight compared to raging across two continents.

Nato

What is the US problem with Nato. Nato is a defense agreement not an expeditionary force agreement. Gates running around talking about it's irrelevance is a bit absurd. NATO has been less relevant since the USSR fell apart. It is still good for incorporating the states into a common military structure, getting the smaller states good training with larger member states, and if necessary acting in the common defense of Europe. There are to many states with separate national interests in NATO to be an effective expeditionary force type treaty. That is why Britain and France have teamed up to share an aircraft carrier, Germany France and Poland are creating a joint force (even though Germany's disapproval of the Libyan mission and Frances enthusiasm flies in the face of that being valuable for expeditionary missions), and Poland is now leading the mild counterbalance force against any Russian aggression. Vicegrad (good post at TRDefence) is likely created by insecurity on the part of some of the new NATO members. They worry about the alliances willingness to defend them. They still have a huge deterrence benefit of being in NATO

Really

For me the idea that the US doesn't want long term bases in Afghanistan sounds like a long shot. Perhaps it knows that it won't happen? Wapo claims that that is the end game. We'll see. A new study group is being set up they'll examine the best way forward. Yep wonder which of the 1500 think tanks papers will be used to examine how to "move forward" toward successfull to defeat? Hu?

Three on Israel.
The question of Israeli stupidity still being asked as former Mossad Chiefs passport revoked.
Did the US out an Israeli specops unit forward deployed to Iran?
Israel spies Israel spies a lot.

Climate of fear by Greenwald is awesome! No law no law at all.

Grand Old Parties (GOP's) Boehner shanghaied by Cantor!!! (Shanghaied... Back in the 17th and 18th century in back alleys behind orphanages and bars there were trap doors that were watched and opened on drunken people or wandering children,then the children or drunks were beaten up until unconscious and brought aboard a ship to do slave labor out at sea until they died.)

Why no one will fight for the War Powers Act

This is a simple question. Here is the answer.
1, The US is at war everywhere and if the War Powers Act was enforced it would require the President to inform Congress about US aggression in Yemen, Somalia, Iran, Pakistan, Sudan, etc etc etc. Congress doesn't want to talk about how deeply involved this global war is or them reasons (in any serious way). So they won't.

A Gay Girl In Damascus

Well hello welcome to the real world where people and governments lie and run psychological operations. This was clearly a partisan source to begin with. A gay girl in the evil Muslim states. O boy hear we go is what I thought just like the pretty flag twitter accounts. These are psy-ops common place so get your heads out of the gutter. There is no humanitarian intervention or global threat from Iran. Be serious. It is orchestrated by major powers and  now and again by what are or appear to be independent actors. Grow up.

Destroying the Bloggers

Not long ago if you were to click on the blogs section on google you would find a new world. This new world was where information never delivered by the main stream media got out. This is a trend being killed by the media itself. Now when switching to the blog section you will find the main stream media "blogs".

The main stream media "blogs" are designed to appear more informative compared to the "news" pages. This might be true however they tow exactly the same misinformation lines. So they are not more informative in any valuable way. They add extra info to placate the readers into believing they know "what's really going on". So the info is designed to give the reader a false sense of empowerment.

Some reads

Lizzie's Liberation via Info Clearing house on the IMF DSK strangeness. I asked it before... Since when do the most powerful people in the world get debarked from planes in cuffs?

TRDefence reprint of Stratfors view on Polands strategic turn. I'll add a quick summery due to both US decline and its security arrangements with Russia and their inability to count on the EU states Poland, Hungry, Czech Republic, and Slovakia have started a new security arrangement outside of NATO called Visegrad.

Syria Comment has a great first hand report from by an American in Syria. Syria in fragments takes us into the radicaliztion of the country on a personal level.

Freidman Quote line in his conversation with Zarkaria "You know, you change Bahrain -- like Egypt implodes, Libya implodes, Bahrain implodes. Syria explodes".

Mote Dogs and the Risk of War

The National journal has a "Mote Dog" (Mote Dog = inspired by and/or designed to inspire militant nationalistic sentiment) or piece on the Joint Special operations Command. The following, while not cited or referenced to any source or evidence, is in the piece;

Created in 1980 after the disastrous hostage-rescue mission in Iran, JSOC is part of the U.S. Special Operations Command that oversees the various special-operations commands of the Army, Air Force, Marines, and Navy. Over the past 10 years, JSOC units have been essential to U.S. military efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq. JSOC has fought a silent but successful proxy war against Iran’s Revolutionary Guards—even, National Journal has learned, engaging directly with its soldiers in at least three countries. It has broken up nuclear-proliferation rings. JSOC has developed contingency plans to safeguard Pakistan’s nuclear weapons in the event of a coup in that nation. It has killed Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon and Hamas terrorists on the West Bank. Its intelligence unit helps Colombian commandos dismantle lucrative drug rings that finance Hezbollah operations around the world. It has provided intelligence that has helped to break up domestic terrorism rings.


No where in the Article does it mention that it is unconstitutional for the US Military to police American Citizens, conduct assassinations, and conduct military operations without Congressional approval. It doesn't mention the risk of setting off unwanted and unwinnable wars. It doesn't mention that Hezbollah and Hamas are not engaged in armed conflict with the US and actions in Lebanon and Palestine only stand to gain more organizations determined to attack it.

Bibi Broadsides Obama

This press conference was clearly a set up. The President couldn't expect Bibi was basically going to say '''your wrong and everyone knows it. Now you do! Now that you know you should go tell the Palestinians that this occupation is forever.''' Netanyahu knew Obama would be trapped. Obama is a great debater if he knows he's about to have one (Not that he would have had this debate in public). There is no way he saw this coming. He would never have given the concessions speech he gave the day before if he had.

Big day for the US and Allies

Israel has injured at least one and arrested another US citizen, killed at least a dozen unarmed people, wounded hundreds, fired on an aid ship, and violated the sovereignty of two states (Bullets travel). 


Pakistan has exchanged fire with both US and Indian forces over the course of about twenty four hours. Pakistan has at least been accused of letting Chinese engineers examine US stealth helicopter.

The some French politicians have condemned the US legal system for arresting one of their citizens on sex offence charges. Conspiracy theories are spewing.

Libya and Strategic Interests

If you don't understand the Libya intervention it has to do with this stuff, in no particular order. Piss poor writing and inappropriate commentary a result of my piss poor attitude and lack of concentration today. Maybe I'll clean it up later.

1, Oil (Libya has the largest reserves in Africa), Gas (23rd largest reserves in the world), Water (the largest fossil water aquifer in the world),  and any other resources there (Need I say more on the control of the worlds natural resources?)
2, Wheelus Air Base. Wheelus’ location and climate made it for about two decades indispensable to Air Force operations until Gaddafi gave them the boot.(The planes are back where's the base?)
3, Arms sales to a military that now needs to be rebuilt (cha ching). There was also 4 billion in Russian contracts to sell air defense to Libya so this was preempted. (Comrade do you have a dollar the Americans stole my lunch?)

Futile Pakistan post

Lets hope that all this screaming nonsense in the US about Pakistan does not turn into a will of influence and force matter. In order for that not to happen the following should be the path.

Three requirements;

1, Stop threatening Pakistan. The dreamy imperialists need to accept that the creation of the new greater ME map is dead. So why hold the threat of a Baluchistan over Pakistan? We hear constantly that Pakistan must be protected then everything done, overtly and covertly, leads to instability. Naivety at best lunacy at worst.

2, Stop threatening Pakistan. A US attack on Pakistan would be a catastrophe, regardless of weather a terrorist attack was planned there or not. The calamity that would ensue would certainly trigger a massive and far more destructive war.

3, Stop threatening Pakistan. Not to go all moral but Pakistan has been a front-line state for fifty plus yrs for the US. Its deep state is a direct response to this role. This is a US made mess and it should do the all the things necessary to alleviate the problem so Pakistan can find itself.

Three suggestions;

Cast of Caracters and Zombie Relations

I have nothing ready. So as everyone knows when you have nothing to say about international affairs you talk about zombies. So I whipped up this fun little piece. You just might laugh. 

Funny scenario. Admittedly Zombie enthusiasts might say this is about an alien invasion (I made that up because I have no idea).

The zombies rise. Eat human brain and spit it out! They eat animal brains instead. These have fewer toxins and most of these zombies are from a simpler time. Humans don't slaughter them like the Neanderthals for some odd reason. (On a side note many are actually undead skeletons and have a huge beef with the way they are depicted in pop culture.) A state by state analysis.

From the White House: New INFOSEC Guidelines

From the White House: New INFOSEC Guidelines
This is a post by By Michael Yon (Code name EMD = Embed Mote Dog). It lays out how "You have no right to know" in government red. More on the inconvenient truth problem. It seems like a joke but I don't know?

The Angry Arab News Service/وكالة أنباء العربي الغاضب: Crooks, thieves, swindlers, embezzlers are all inv...

The Angry Arab News Service/وكالة أنباء العربي الغاضب: Crooks, thieves, swindlers, embezzlers are all inv...: "' “I need about $2 to $3 billion, and we are hoping to get most or all of this,” he said, adding that he expects the United States, France, ..."

How about a... We won!

This is a status update without the bull. Not so much talking points unless we are openly talking about the "great game" now.

The US;
1, Killed or ran out all the terrorists in Afghanistan. At least those out to hit the US homeland including "bin Laden". If a terrorist is one who targets US civilians they're not there (as a side note).
2, Had the TAPI pipeline approved. This screwed Iran and China. India strategicaly weakened by the deal will likely draw closer to the US. Pakistan is a mixed bag fraught with problems (as usual). LNG and shipping got a boost and will leave who ever owns the sea (the US) in a more powerful position.
3, Built a relationship with a new political, military, and business elite in Afghanistan. Many are likely retain some influence after withdrawal. This will leave an access point for influence and Intelligence.

An American Awakened

This is so great! It was updated earlier. So reprint!!!

An American Awakened

I woke up the last night and my mind was churning. I didn’t know why. So I thought about what I did the day before.

Earlier in the day my apathy had been in full effect. I was working on numerous foreign affairs pieces and was sloshing through framing, wording, and sourcing. For the sourcing I had about a dozen pages and pdfs open when my computer decided to take an unexpected break. That was good because I was accomplishing nothing.

I ran into an article on human rights in the United States, once back online. I saw a challenge so I started writing. The piece began to take the shape of a strategy of informational warfare against the United States. The  report I read was from China and I became uncomfortable and decided against publishing. Again more wasted time.

My day of reading and barely writing was coming to a close. Just one more thing, put something on the blog.

Osama bin Laden

Rest In Peace.

Don't like them? "Kill them!"

Gadhafi's youngest son and three grandchildren were killed in Libya. Add that to 1986 assault that killed Gahdafis daughter and you come up with five, count them five, of the mans family that have been killed by the US. So not only will the US assassinate states leaders but it will also wipe out their families. Touching foreign policy. Walt covers how this norm may come back to bite the US.

Todays games in Libya and India

Gadhafis plan to use tribes to take and hold Misurata is shaping up… The Libya war had expanded into Tunisia (Should be expected as this is a strategic regional war involving States and Alliances of dueling interests. The adversaries China and the US via The spiteful alliance members Turkey-France via. While Saudi Arabia, with the GCC in tow, battle Iranian ghosts everywhere. Iran, Syria, Israel, and Egypt have to be jockeying in the mix somehow, perhaps strange bedfellows on this one?)… Wooo Hooo!!!

India rejected US fighter offer narrowing its options to either the French Rafale or the EU Typhoon. The US had offered its upgraded versions of the F16 and/or F18 fighters. The rejection seem sound on many levels.
1, It is likely to be domestically popular move. There is deep concern in India over overt alliances in the “great game”.
2, Perhaps it is a tactically prudent move. Pakistan uses the F16, India will benefit from increased cooperation with the EU

News Brief "sort of"

Hamas and the PA are reconciling, maybe. Israel says "peace talks" a no go if it happens. Many just roll their eyes at the notion of "Peace Talks" at this point anyhow. The clearest sign of a reconciliation happening will be the opening of the Gaza border with Egypt. Once this border opens it may very well stay open. So it may be a bargaining chip only once.

The coalition of the willing have put out an op-ed saying they will continue "humanitarian" non-war killing  in Libya until regime change takes place. Robot assassins have already begun their lifeless duty to destroy all that is not acceptable to the US in Libya.

The US is further militarizing the CIA (and the country) now putting a four star general in charge. That should be no surprise after the treatment of Bradly Manning. His treatment can surely be defined as extended "Enhanced Interrogation"  The Empire is coming home to the roost. 

Spooky security twitterers freak out and start screaming spy, more specifically "honey trap" (mmm yummy), over sexy security tweetete. Very funny!

I woke up this morning turned on the tv and bam. The Red Coats were on the move. I was terrified!

Quick smack down

When it comes to Iran some things are on the table in regards to name calling. The US establishment typically calls the President of Iran a dictator while at the same time referring to the establishment as a theocracy. A bit confusing to some. Here are a few reasons.

1, Iran is neither a theocracy nor a dictatorship and that's hard to explain without using big people words.
2, Most western leaders prefer to avoid the term Supreme Leader for egotistical reasons. Thus focusing on the President is easier.
3, Destroying the English language through befuddling nonsensical statements is a curious American political pastime. (See; humanitarian non-war bombing missions, the rendering of the word fascism to meaning little more than bad “now look over there at all the fascists!”, or referring to attacks on warships as terrorism “Hey you sank my cotton candy and hugs dispenser”)

Woe

A real humanitarian issue may be approaching. Bahrains protestors have been subject to dehumanisation. We know what that leads too. Once people are "cockroaches" they are much easier to kill.

Cowboys Ninjas and Jihad

lol hahaha I'm such a dork!
Don't try to search it it won't work.

Moral War Arguments DOA

The moral arguments for and about the attacks on Libya consistently get discredited. Genocide invokes a more serious problem then seems to have existed in Libya. There were none of the tell tale signs of an impending genocide like a campaign to dehumanize a race or religious sect. Perhaps Gadhafi was just biding his time, over the last few decades until the right moment came along to wipe out large segments of the population. However the fighting had not left a cluttered trail of bodies as Gahdafis forces retook cities. So it seems unlikely. This was a civil war and it was already winding down.

Even if R2P (the UN rule of right to protect populations from genocide) was applicable the spirit of resolution 1973 was violated from day 1. Ground attacks started immediately which has decimated the Libyan Military. Now it would be all but impossible for their military to even defend the states borders.

Gadhafi’s forces are fighting and defending from urban terrain as are the Rebels. They do this because it would be stupid to stand in the open and wait to get shot. Urban terrain offers both cover and

war brief

An Italian peace activist was killed in Gaza. Hamas says it was done buy Israel. Israel coined "Al Qaeda in Gaza" through their intel mis-direction website and said it was them.

Iran hates the Saudis who hold a threat of sectarian or ethnicity conflict over them every time they say Bahrain.

Western backed Hariri continues to punch above his weight, presumably at Saudi directive, and blames Iran for all the Arab problems.

Saudi mad mad at US. Cut oil production. High profile meetings with Pak and China.

Human Rights in the US

China putting soft power to work. Copying directly from the US playbook. Here's the link...

Terror!!!

I can't find the hard number for our percent chance of being killed by terror. I'm pretty sure that's a conspiracy. That aside I did find these numbers to reinforce your fear. They come directly from a source trying to manipulate you into having a false sence of security. Have a look as I decimate their PROPOGANDA!

12 tricks of the so called anti-terror propogandists!

You are 13 times more likely to die in a railway accident than from a terrorist attack (Trains instructor was a terrorist!)
You are 12,571 times more likely to die from cancer than from a terrorist attack (Sneaky terrorist took all the cancer research funding away!)

You are six times more likely to die from hot weather than from a terrorist attack (Global Warming Terror!! GWT hmmm)
You are eight times more likely to die from accidental electrocution than from a terrorist attack (Terrorist made you stick the fork into the outlet and left before any one saw him!)
You are 11,000 times more likely to die in an airplane accident than from a terrorist plot involving an airplane (Terrorist took the fuel out and put a brick in to keep the guage high!)

Saudi Electric Slide

On the Arabist there's a post to a video "Where is Kahled" (We know with no certainty very well where he is), Anyways beyond important matters. This was next in line after that. Lay down and boogie and play that funky music till you drop.  

 

Muckity Muck

Sad but true. Saudi Arabia has decided that democracy doesn’t work. Title says it all. However in the FP community the best read will be The Sweet Smell of the Counter Revolution in AT. After Suadi Arabia cowing all the Super (US-silent as as outer-space on Bahrain), Great (China- bigger importer of SA oil than the US), and Rising (Turkey- if you want to rise better not pick a fight with us was the message from SA that changed the Turks toon) powers. Now it has it's sight on all the revolutions, and is likely even rooting for President Assad to be there unlikely asset in that department (make a point... since Bahrain can't make news anywhere Syria can make a little (not to much the US and Israel what him to stay now… the bad mouthing and sanctions were only to keep Syria weak not to get the people representation)). These revolutions, in the Saudi mind set, need to crushed or if already taken place co-opted. Lesson of the day; Show them the road to fear and make them bow. 

The quickest Pak brief ever

This is the a must read if you want to know about Pakistanis condition and roll in the "Great game". Being a frontline state is not easy and it is even less easy to remove a state from that roll. Being a frontline state is often based more on geography than ideology. This being the case it is all but impossible to extricate from the roll. The writer not only covers the condition and key points but also offers suggestions as to what actions he believes Pakistan should take. What Pakistan Must Do
O Important point! It doesn't cover Baluchistan in great depth. The concept of disintegration is made but here is a little background.
It is a strategic port area.
It covers about half of Pakistan territory. While it only about 5 of the 180 or so million citizens of Pakistan.
Has most of the energy resources.
Could potentially be a free trade zone.
Great powers often break up non-compliant states. This makes them weak and dependant on outside protection.
It would be a boon for arms dealers not only to have a war but to have a new vassal state in need of an entire military.
The West almost child like obsession with Iran will come into play here.
It would be an offer hard to refuse if the backing to proceed came with an alliance with a super power. Especially if it meant escaping from Pakistan’s enormous debt.
There is an existing movement to succeed.

Hilarious Danger Room

Somebody was drunk with disgust at the Wired Blog. This is great!

 Be relieved. You’ve made it through airport security with more than enough time before your flight boards. Go to the bar and order a drink. Wi-Fi’s inexplicably good here, so you might as well check Twitter. Suddenly @DHS lets you know: OMG UR ABOUT 2 DIE

Two Cents;
Unless the color coded chart was supposed to turn each and every American into a Anti-terrorist supper hero the old system sucked. Now they want to lessen the ridiculousness of it, however unlikely that is to work. Perhaps it will spare the "folks" in Montana a few trips to the bat cave though.
Terror!~!

Maybe a war?

Israel has made the pre moves for war in Lebanon and Palestine. Probably weighing lots of issues but militarily they are confident and they may view the time as expedient.

1, Release of What it says are Hezbollah military sites in Lebanon. Presumably to "prove" that those little colored dots are fair game.
2, Goldstone redacted the UN report with his name on it. Presumably to wipe the slate clean.
3, Chatter of Hezbollah in Libya. On the far from confirmed end were rumors of Hezbollah acquiring WMD's.
4, Renewed aggression on Gaza. Israel intentional hit Hamas men even though Hamas had been trying to control the rocket fire.

5, Syria is awol due to domestic problems. This may limit their response to new engagements. It also

Broken

Stephen Walt steps up again with a must read piece covering The top 5 reasons we keep on fighting these wars in an article called "Are we addicted to war". Strangely he also has a post titled the "The top 5 reasons we go to war" that makes the point of how misleading it was no certainty there was a humanitarian disaster if the US didn't act. I say "Again" because of this piece "Where Do Bad Ideas Come From". He obviously thinks the latter is more important based on his capitalization. HAHA just kidding it is better written but some of the same topics keep jumping out.

Jesse Ventura believes the system is broke, no kidding! He would consider running with Ron Paul if Paul drops the GOP. Paul does refer to the system as a two party dictatorship.  My advise to any third party or non affiliate would be get a publicist! "Two Party Tyranny" sounds way cooler. ...TPT I like that! Nothing like a good slogan! It would be the first legitimate actor to get elected to the

ISAF

The ISAF;

Has turned the militaries of 50 states into renteir forces. (For some with no interest except kiss some ass and let or troops train on real people (kinda icky))

Changed the balance of power in the region (IE; destabilized Pakistan) and the world (IE; weakened the US... is at least partially responsible for causing a massive arms race).

Led to a massive lack of moral and legal accountability. (IE; humanitarian disaster... failure to prosecute war crimes... opened the door to the catastrophe in Iraq and the current situation in Libya... etc)

Failed to impose it’s will on Afghanistan. (AKA; Lost the war)

Is that about right?

Hey who’s idea was it to invade a land locked Central Asian state that is notoriously effective at repelling foreign occupation anyways.  

Conflicting interests

In an earlier post I pointed out the potential for the old empires to get frisky in Libya. Looks like the US cleared the way foe the French UK alliance to take to the skies, a quid pro quo for services rendered in the US wars. Allowing the French and Brits work in a more “sanitized” environment was the least it could do. Whether the US can really resist having future interests that will conflict with the Europeans is an unknown. What is known is that the French and British coalition and the Turks have begun to via over control. The Turks didn't take being omitted from the initial planning session lightly. They immediately joined the coalition sending an armada to the Libyan coast and getting the mission designated a NATO mission, with the GCC monarchy support. The French and Brits then moved to have the military and political elements separated. This has been followed by Turkish offer to negotiate. We have a race for Libya that has escalated from a civil war to an international showdown. Now we have oblig

?

What was this supposed to accomplish. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain’s Monarchy are living in a bubble, in the past, or are delusional. They just keep injuring themselves. They're suffering from a shear lack of political savy, vision, and disipline.

Advantageous Positioning

Simple math on UN security Council Resolution 1973.
When many were talking about going to war and what that entailed, the should we or shouldn't we debate, one thing was oddly left out. It is called leverage. Regardless of who is victorious on the ground in Libya this resolution gives outside leverage. If an outside player wants to protect civilians, rebels, corporations, or pursue any of their national interests they now have leverage. Along with leverage it provides broad room to maneuver.

On a side note; The US has a resolution 1773 called the War Powers Act. It allows the president to authorize the use of force while requiring the congress to be notified within 48hrs and get a formal declaration within 90 days or have the troops removed by then. The US has not formally been at war since WWII.

The empires of past getting frisky?

The US isn't doing anything in Libya. The French and Brits might. Going rouge would help them get out of the US shadow, clean up the image, restore some pride, make some frenamies, and they may even make a few bucks.

Both leaders could use a win, particularly a foreign policy win.

France has just had a diplomatic coup in their foreign policy ranks. This moved them to the right, the get back in the great game right. The Brits have plenty of the same.

They have the assets to smuggle and plant spec-ops in the area. They have access to great intel. So it won't cost to much.

Anti armor weapons and heavy machine guns will change the air dominance situation without handing out stingers (advisors should bring them if they are on the ground without a no-fly zone).

Radios, intel, and advisors might change the dynamics from a disorganized bunch loosing the fight to a semi disorganized quasi-asymetric-gurilla-tribal alliance. hahaha It won’t cost much either.

Too bad the first Brits to hit the ground got thrown in jail. That may have altered their decision making prognosis. Certainly hasn't hurt the French narrative. I think they are both itching to stretch their legs. We’ll see if they have the nerve to take the risks involved with this type of operation soon enough.

Forget the criminal this is lethal

This Rolling stone article by Michael Hastings shows the abuse of power and misappropriation of resources by a Lt Gen William Caldwell, a high ranking US military officer. This article should cause outrage not at Hastings as Abu Muqawama has deemed appropriate nor the lightening of significance of Lt Gen Caldwells actions as Ricks has done. It should send shivers, sweats, outrage, through the military community operating in Afghanistan. It also should lead to investigation and/or immediate removal of the Gen from a command position.

Where I'm from the military is supposed to fight and win wars. The military does not like that it is loosing this war to what was once viewed to be a far inferior enemy, and in many way such as access to technology and size of force is unquestionably inferior to this day. That however does not give it the rig
 ht to its own facts nor permission to conduct illegal activities. H
 ow they view the difference between “its working give me more" and "we need more to make it work" as profound enough to conduct illegal activity to hammer this point home causes me confusion. That said what I do know is when a commander decides that it is appropriate to use psy-ops (regardless of what they want to call them today) to manipulate and skew the facts to leaders of the coalition it destroys those leaders ability to make informed decisions. Whether it was done for personal gain or because the commander believes he can achieve his mission with more

2006 Hezbollah Israel war unclassified examination

We were caught unprepared. That is putting it lightly.

Just a rant

It seem to me that American control over the main stream media has no bounds. The original self censorship of the Egyptian uprising should be a serious cause for concern. However disconcerted that was it seems trivial to what has become a call for an uprising in Iran.

The Iranian green movement is a far cry from a domestically created organization. It is more or less a creation of ex patriots (many left with the Shah), special interests, and covert interference. Support and financing come primarily from the US and UK governments and their friendly “NGOs”.

This movement has all the trademarks of an organization that can be appealing to mass audiences. The green of the green movement is a color. The color has significance to the people of Iran however it is still   color. Colors don’t hold a great deal of significance thus they don’t alienate anyone.  

The call for change is wildly un-descriptive. Yes we here democracy but there are no democracies in the world, nor will there be one in Iran. There are democratic forms of government but the notion of democracy as a system of government would mean that all the leaders of government and every institution would be selected by the people. It is unfathomable that any state could operate under those conditions.

American Allies

FP’s list of “Americas most embarrassing allies”

Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen
King Abdullah II of Jordan
Yoweri Museveni of Uganda
Nursultan Nazarbayev  Of Kazikstan
Nguyen Tan Dung of Vietnam

Alternet list if the more pointedly phrased “Worst Dictators the US is backing".
Paul Biya of Cameroon
Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov, Turkmenistan
Teodoro Obiang Nguema, Equatorial Guinea
Idriss Deby, Chad

These they argee on, presumably making them “the worst and most embarrassing dictators the US is allied with and backing”
King Abdullah of saudi Arabia
Meles Zenawi of  Ethiopia
Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan

McCain on Tehran Times?

Strange;

While Tehran is making it quite clear it wants Mubarak gone seeing a Fox interview with john McCain in the Tehran Times took me by surprise. This is a guy who started to sing "Bomb Iran" (link to Dark humor clip caused by his speech). His take on this seems more distinguished stating "The US has to come down on the right side of history" on this.

Article run-down;

1, Mubarak has to go (There doesn’t seem to be any other course of action.)
2, ME most dangerous time since US involvement (The area is in a great transition. US has dominated region with autocratic governments and the people are fighting for self determination..... Capitol flight from gains made in the recent economic neo-liberal period is in the hands of a very few and is a huge risk. This risk, almost certain to materialize, could further exasperate the economic problems of the region. etc etc etc
3, He worries the Muslim Brotherhood would "hijack the elections." (There is some legitimate risk of a political coup to form a theocracy, unlikely to happen. Mostly just code for the Egyptian people will vote for people he doesn't want them to. US image is terrible in ME and is it going to find its relationship change with a democratic government, many Egyptians despise the US. Geo politics will continue to play an important role and is likely to be a moderator of emotion. However if allegiance were to decisively switch to another

Legitimacy in Palestine

With legitimacy related unrest in the region the Palestinian Authority, ruled by Fatah, has announced plans to hold elections very soon. Protests had spread into the territories only as “solidarity protests” with the anti mubarak protestors in egypt. In Gaza Hamas allowed the “solidarity protests” to take place while in the PA controlled West bank Fatah led security forces cracked down. Hamas has many reasons to allow these protests to take place legitimacy being the most profound of them.  The Palestinian authority has moved to bolster its legitimacy, having already served long past its elected term, by calling for elections. The legitimacy of these elections being "fair" will depend on a number of issues.

1, Many of Hamas supporters in WB have been detained and subject to tribunals that prescribe little or no rights to defendants (recently 289 have been detained). If political detainees are not released it may have implications on how the legitimacy of the elections.

2, The Palestinian Commission on Human Rights stated in relation to the PA crack down on Egyptian solidarity demonstrators that "The Palestinian Authority should immediately make clear that its ‘state-building’ training of security forces does not include beating peaceful demonstrators," Without freedom to associate

Instead of "Frank" convos who ever Frank is

"We've been asking for reforms" Aparently we've always been the good guys according to Hillary. It might be a tough sell to protestors when we have and continue to support their enemy. They had the internet until a couple days ago, they might be briefed on the matter.


FP Tom Ricks posts this from this Blogger.
1, Support the protestors (Hearts & Minds)
2, Suspend aid to rulers (might not want to leave a vacume)
3, Ask Egyptians for friendship. Offer economic aid (Pro; include new market, it will build bonds to have assets there to help rebuild (hearts & minds), corps are great for intel and influence... Con; it'll be hard to do, there is risk involved in trying, for those risk averse force protection folks at home it's a tough sell )
4, Food aid, they will need it (They would be less inclined to "Bite the hand that feeds them". I'd be patient and take a few hits before committing to over throwing them (see Iran 1941).
5, Warn their neighbors about interfering (Protect them)

From my last post;
5,  The real 1^st in this case and critical in any;  Prevent outside backing Interference (not that they would get much anyways); Islamic forces will take over scare, better the devil you know (US), if I  they go down

Egypt puts a glove on the fist

High Speed Counter Insurrection

1, Scare them by dominant position "meet the fist with a club". Show of force ”We have organization and weapons, you don't”. “Take the square" for a physiological and territorial conquest.
2, Give them no sanctuary; Put security forces in civilian cloths, use mercenaries, and use gangs. (The who’s
 who problem with the insurrectionists and it gives diplomatic cover internationally), disperse/displace, cut off food/water/communication lines, and remove every element of safety/hope (looting, riots, lethargic army, no police, and a general feeling of vulnerability).
3, Split them; Pro government forces are already using anti US and Islamic slogans. (Whose protest is this?)
4, Kill and jail those who won't quit and the rest get apathy.

Then the many are reoccupied by the few. The most brutal get metals, money, and don’t go to jail for these

Domino

Following on the news that President Mubarak will reform Egypt King Abdullah of decrees himself Jordans reformer, after sacking cabinet (sound familiar?).

Yemeni President won't seek new term.

Calls for protests in Syria.

2 cents; Well the domino theory has gained some prestiege.

Out comes unclear.

Info Monopoly

Must read

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/01/tunisia-egypt-miami-the-importance-of-internet-choke-points/70415/

Pretty brief summery so my only comment is; "If Egyptians can overcome their apathy with monopoly can we not do the same."

See previous post on the "military technology congressional complex” here.

Egypt 2-1-2011

Freedom of the press is gone. Freedom of speech highest ever.
Freedom to communicate with the outside world gone. Freedom to assemble highest ever.

Control over security forces, both Gov and Military.
Control over military, neither Gov nor Civilian.

Government is paralyzed fading autocracy leaning toward military junta? Future unclear.

Why We Flattened Afghanistan?

Flynn is flyin high! http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/i-flattened-afghan-villages/#more-39714

Is 49,200 pounds of bombs an apropriate method for IED disposal. The US military says the answer is yes. Force protection at its finest? They have no idea how to fight this war? This is so far lost that are troops are loosing their minds?

(LT Col Flynn called together Tarok Kolache’s malek and the other area residents to let them know that he was planning, essentially, large-scale demolitions. (((however)))“We didn’t show them a plan and say, ‘We’re going to destroy everything in the village, is everyone OK with that?’” he says.) Hmmm wonder why not?

link to AJE in US

@LinkTV has the most @AJEnglish coverage in the US, DIRECTV 375, DISH 9410. LIVE 11am-3pm EST, and more throughout the day #wewantouraje

Egypt today

A clear path of succession was made. The naming of Omar Suleiman as Vice President, first VP in thirty years, may ease tensions of some concerned parties. He is of a military and intelligence background and should ease concerns of the military and of those opposed to the transfer of power to the current Presidents son.

Security forces, 350,000 strength and loathed by protestors, not visibly present in cities.

Military, 468,500 strength and embraced by the protestors, urges respect for curfew so they can hunt looters (it has been reported that the looters are the Security Forces).  Military has not engaged protestors nor security forces with direct force of arms. It is reported that the military has used its presence to protect Protestors on the ground with armor (see video here), intimidation (simply by their presence), and also using helicopters to clear the rooftops of security forces snipers.

Cairo live

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/ woe news in the Middle East. ((super coverage!!))

Blundering Pajama Pundit on Secret Societies

Go FP

           Recently an article was published in FP. Its focus was Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour Hersh speech in Qutar. Hersh stated that the US Joint Special Operations Command is run by officers who believe they are in a holy war. He went even further by stating that they where also in Christian secret societies such as the "Knights of Malta" and "Opus Dei". The article was seemingly to denounce the notion with statements such as "conspiracy-laden diatribe" and "down hill from there".

          The article didn't come across the way he planned. The article just had too much Hersh and not enough denouncing. So another post was made where he again tried to denounce Hersh and clarify his own stance. With four points he provided more ammunition for conspiracy theorists.

1, In reference to the accusation there is a pervasive attitude of a Christian crusade he stated you would have to do a survey of JSOC. "Good luck with that" was his assessment of the possibility of that happening. He is correct there is no chance of a specop survey of whether they believe they are on a crusade.