Sunday, February 3, 2013

Quick ME CA post

I have a quick moment for a post. Spewing info works best. So here it is.

The US lost its pants, foothold, and men. China will win. That wasn't a fixed matter at the start of the longest war outside resource and long range alliance strategy planning at the time. China will engage in a way the hadn't but were probably going to begin to in 2001. They don't like the Taliban but have to secure there interests on their borders and will now no matter who the victor is. The US has laid the ground work for them in this regard in a number of ways we haven't the time for but most critically they can work with Pakistan and India better, in this matter, than the US can. They clearly don't want US forces on their border so good play.

UGHHHHH!!!!!. This is a mess and will have to be reconciled by powers not Arabs. Saudi Qatari plans will not work. There is and will continue to be change however the anything is better than Iran motto is futile. Iran may lose influence but it is a matter of course not revolution (funny how Al Saud has only one revolution it wants on the humor front). There has also already been steps taken by all parties involved that would bring the end to the carnage. Iran and Russa have met the opposition openly, prisoner releases are alaway a good confidence builder, and we have the Egyptian MB in a position of power, Get in or miss out. Somebody is gonna get screwed and its not going to be as bad for those who engage.

I don't know.

Ha! Qatar lost it's training base for radicals to the French. Godda love it. They should have put all there assets into the Tuaregs it would have been far less unsavory to "Western powers".

Skip lets just do the ME

The ME is convulsing and it will be interesting to see if new borders come out of this. as of yet it hasn't happened however let's watch

Yemen; (I like Yemen as a test bubble that I know to little about)
Lets see if we come out with a further failed state, republic, effectively divided state, more representative (ie; more democratic), Islamist... state... etc. It will be interesting with Al Saud and the US on the same team and unable to determine much there as of now. I am skeptical of Saudi ability to take up arms there and the US won't... I'm speaking full ground engagement. Thus what we have is what we're getting just like in Syria. Very interesting. (see Iraq/ME)

Well this place. First there is no Palestine left so talking about two states (One expected to not be able to preform the MOST basc function of a state that is to protect its population from foreign assault (IE have a military) is utterly ridiculous anyways and always has been.

In regaurds to Lebanon that 2006 war laid a foundation for a semi normal state to state relation ship born on deterrence that is spectacular. Neither side engages in unnecessary and ridiculous violation of the others territory. Do they sure but not habitually. Will they fight again sure but as a state with an army that is not in their control and a state that its army is its only control. A truly an amazing situation.

I donno what Israel's game is here. They can't possibly enjoy this. Syria wasn't a mil threat before any more than Hezbollah post 2006. So risking an uncertain future like this would not be something advisable. This was fun in the Iran is an existential threat dream world but it's not so? This isn't in there control and they would be wise to get the US to engage in the latest diplomatic effort with their input then watch from the sidelines. (No preconditions LOL)

Till next time.