Friday, August 12, 2011

Thinking about Syria Watching Turkey

"If this can be solved it can only be solved through Turkish efforts."

Turkey is a Muslim neighbor of Syria with growing regional, economic, and diplomatic clout, it also has the most formidable military in the region. It has open lines of communication with Syrian government, Muslim Brotherhood, “The West”, and some of the fractishish movement members. So all eyes on Turkey

Veysel Ayhan, an associate professor from the Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal University and an expert on the Middle East and Syria, said a NATO intervention in Syria would turn the region into absolute hell. “Turkey is back to its position in the 1990s. It is pursuing a proactive foreign policy. We can confidently say that a wave of refugees much bigger than the one during the Gulf War is in store, as it is unlikely that the situation in Syria will be resolved in the near future. NATO handled the situation in Afghanistan and Libya badly. Western countries can't make any contributions to NATO in similar operations. If this can be solved, it can only be solved through Turkey's efforts. If, in the long run, NATO intervenes, we could be faced with a more dire picture.”

Turkey has everything on the table diplomacy, shaming, and military. Turkey is ranked 8th of the worlds military with a standing force of over 600 thousand personnel. It has an approximately 19 billion (US) budget ranking 17th in the world and is capable of purchasing top gear from any of the major arms producers states. Put that in comparison to Syria’s 300 thousand force with a 1 or 2 billion budget without similar access to top end