Friday, February 4, 2011

McCain on Tehran Times?

While Tehran is making it quite clear it wants Mubarak gone seeing a Fox interview with john McCain in the Tehran Times took me by surprise. This is a guy who started to sing "Bomb Iran" (link to Dark humor clip caused by his speech). His take on this seems more distinguished stating "The US has to come down on the right side of history" on this.
Article run-down;
1, Mubarak has to go (There doesn’t seem to be any other course of action.)
2, ME most dangerous time since US involvement (The area is in a great transition. US has dominated region with autocratic governments and the people are fighting for self determination..... Capitol flight from gains made in the recent economic neo-liberal period is in the hands of a very few and is a huge risk. This risk, almost certain to materialize, could further exasperate the economic problems of the region. etc etc etc
3, He worries the Muslim Brotherhood would "hijack the elections." (There is some legitimate risk of a political coup to form a theocracy, unlikely to happen. Mostly just code for the Egyptian people will vote for people he doesn't want them to. US image is terrible in ME and is it going to find its relationship change with a democratic government, many Egyptians despise the US. Geo politics will continue to play an important role and is likely to be a moderator of emotion. However if allegiance were to decisively switch to another

 major power it could be a catastrophe for the US.

4, Army is the only institution in Egypt that can insure elections in September. (True; still the Army has political (domestic and Geo), economic, and internal interests. Some international oversight would be hugely beneficial to ensure "free and fair". ***The transfer of power here will take time. There are reasons why democratic systems don't elect all members of governing bodies at one time. It will take time to organize political parties that make sense. etc etc etc ect***)
5, The Army is also the only institution that has any credibility amongst the people and the longer this last the more risk of them losing some of it. (Army is currently handling it's image well. There are divisions in all militaries and the ground forces seem to be more population friendly than the Air and Presidential Guard (Navy?). Civilian control over the military is a long process and is more likely to be the Turkish model for quite some time (Note; Democratic process has strengthened and civilian control over Turkish Armed Forces is increasing. The pragmatism and independence of the "New Turkey" worries some often leading to attacks by those who are accustom to dominating the state).
6, Worries for Israel. (No surprise with Israel having an even worse image then the US in regional populations and the former being a physical part of the region. The Israelis have shown no penchant for resolving long standing issues recently and will loath the idea of negotiating from a weakened position.) (On a positive note Egypt is unlikely under any democratic government to withdraw support for the Arab Initiative. Also any easing on Hamas would add major impetus to negotiate.)

          Instead of the dark clip here is Obama on McCain’s prudence.

WOW that one took on a life of its own.