Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Maybe a war?

has made the pre moves for war in Lebanon and Palestine. Probably weighing lots of issues but militarily they are confident and they may view the time as expedient.

1, Release of What it says are Hezbollah military sites in Lebanon. Presumably to "prove" that those little colored dots are fair game.
2, Goldstone redacted the UN report with his name on it. Presumably to wipe the slate clean.
3, Chatter of Hezbollah in Libya. On the far from confirmed end were rumors of Hezbollah acquiring WMD's.
4, Renewed aggression on Gaza. Israel intentional hit Hamas men even though Hamas had been trying to control the rocket fire.

5, Syria is awol due to domestic problems. This may limit their response to new engagements. It also
 may limit Hezbollah’s rearming capability.
6, Wiki magic has released documents alleging some 15,000 Lebanese that could be used to fight Hezbollah. With the US testing air power and special forces support for Libya’s rebels Israel is certain to look at the option. Still Israeli ground forces would likely be needed for the initial assaults.
7, War games in Israel suggest as much.
8, Political rhetoric also leans in this direction.
9, Now would be the time to be a spoiler to Palestinian moves at the UN in Sept.
10, Now would be the time based on US elections.

For their part Hezbollah probably a bit worried.

1, It allowed itself to be drawn into the Persian Gulf mess. This led to sanctions in Bahrain. Presumably everything coming out of Bahrain is Saudi dictated. As such the GCC will fall in line and Saudis will lead a shadow war on Iran.
2, They are rearmed but their lines of support are strained.
3, They are surrounded by enemies. Israel, March 14, US, are all adversaries and what few Allies that can be found are all political beast that will ally for survival with the likely victor.
4, They feel the stress of the last war social costs.

Palestinians, as always, are vulnerable.  

The US "Super Power"ful. They just isued a don't go to Lebanon with a historical briefing attached, weird propoganda (but anywhere they can squeeze it in). They just invaded Libya, why would be the question of the day. So anything is posible. Ol drunkin Uncle Sam "Bring em on! Global war on everything!!!".